Synthesis of risks and opportunities

The report, published on 5 December by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), was compiled in collaboration with over 300 experts. It combines and supplements the results of eight regional case studies and summarises them in a Switzerland-wide synthesis of the risks and opportunities arising from climate change today and with a view to the year 2060.

Climate change poses significantly more risks than opportunities for Switzerland. Numerous risks relate to human health due to more frequent heat waves, the spread of diseases and the increase in natural hazards - but they also affect economic key points (see Infobox).

More risks than opportunities
By influencing the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods, landslides or heat waves, climate change also has significant impacts in many other areas, especially in the economy. The increase in the intensity and duration of dry-rain periods in Switzerland and abroad, for example, poses a risk to the agricultural sector (decline in yields) or the construction industry (weather failures).

Milder and shorter winters also bring benefits. The food and wine sectors are most likely to benefit from the extension of the growing season. Mild winter months require less fossil energy, but, according to FOEN experts, Swiss tourism will probably have to reckon with a loss of revenue. On the other hand, the tourist season could continue in a nice summer.

Nevertheless, during the summer dry periods, a decline in electricity production from hydropower is to be expected. Supply bottlenecks could also occur on waterways and in rail transport. If the snow line rises, on the other hand, hydropower production could increase in the winter periods.

Major risks for biodiversity
Various consequential effects will have a negative impact on biodiversity. The rise in temperature and the increase in drought are stress factors that strain numerous ecosystems; aquatic and alpine ecosystems are particularly affected by this development. Biodiversity, but also ecosystem services that are important for society, will be exposed to considerable risks. On the other hand, certain species could benefit from the change in natural habitats.

New challenges identified
The FOEN study should also serve to further develop the Federal Council's adaptation strategy. Thus, new challenges were identified where the initiated thought process needs to be deepened. The focus here is on improvements that climate change could bring at the local level, the effects of climate change abroad on Switzerland, or the so-called "wildcard" risks, such as events that could reach a tipping point resulting in a sudden change in the state of the system.

Analysis of climate-related risks and opportunities
The climate-related risks and opportunities for Switzerland were analysed as a basis for the further development of the adaptation strategy and the preparation of a possible next action plan. The analysis assumes the same level of emissions in the coming decades as today. The analysis provides an important quantitative and qualitative basis for targeted adaptation (risk approach).

In the first part of the adaptation strategy, a pragmatic approach was used to identify and assess the relevant fields of action from the perspective of the sectors. The results are presented in nine-field matrices. The cross-sectoral, integral analysis of risks and opportunities, on the other hand, is based on both model calculations and expert estimates.

Regional methodology
In the first phase from 2010 to 2011, a method was developed that allows climate-related risks and opportunities to be analysed across all sectors. The areas of agriculture, forestry and water management, energy, infrastructures and buildings, health, tourism, biodiversity, and open and green spaces were taken into account.

In the second phase, this method was applied in eight cantonal case studies: Aargau, Uri, Geneva, Basel-Stadt, Grisons, Fribourg, Ticino and Jura. The results of these case studies were compiled in a nationwide synthesis in 2016 to 2017. The results of the risk analysis will serve as a basis for the review and further development of the adaptation strategy and for the possible development of a next action plan.

They make it possible to set priorities for the federal government's adaptation activities and thus to shape adaptation to climate change in Switzerland in a targeted and efficient manner.

Trade flow disruption
The increasing vulnerability of a globalised economy to disruption can be illustrated by climate-related and other catastrophic events. The OECD (2014) has documented several cases that illustrate the scope of supply shortages in global supply chains. Floods in the Bangkok metropolitan area in 2011, for example, led to a temporary shortage of about 30 percent in the global supply of hard disk drives for computers. The tsunami that hit the east coast of Japan in the same year affected both the global automotive and electronics industries, as key manufacturers of automotive coatings and microchips were out of business for extended periods.

Switzerland at risk
In Switzerland, the hot and low-rainfall summer of 2003 remains in the memory, which led, among other things, to massive restrictions on Rhine shipping: Not only were shipping operations affected, but rail freight capacities along the Rhine were also insufficient to handle the mineral oil products, containers and metals delivered to the North Sea ports. Large quantities of grain had to be temporarily stored there until the situation on the Rhine returned to normal (source: BUWAL et al. 2004).