radical change
The automobile industry has undergone its third revolution. La première fut instaurée par Henry Ford, qui a fait de la voiture un produit de masse. The second revolution in the automotive industry took place in the 1970s and 1980s and resulted in a large-scale differentiation of products. And here comes the third revolution: under the pressure of social change, the automotive industry will have to reorient itself once again.
Mobility is and will be the key to the future. However, the way in which this mobility is applied is subject to major changes. Changes that the automotive industry will have to face, will have to face disruption for a long time to come.
Du fabricant au prestataire de mobilité
Three key trends are driving forward the technological development of the automotive industry: connectivity, mobility and ecology. The consequences include interconnected vehicles, autonomous driving and vehicle handling modes, not to mention the electrification of vehicles. Clients are certainly still aiming for individual mobility, but one that is prudent and the most ecological possible. The industry is therefore faced with a new challenge, that of responding to these developments with new models of activity. Mais cela signifie également que les entreprises doivent parfois revoir de fond en comble leur façon de penser établie. " Face à la situation d'une dynamique de concurrence croissante, les processus de direction et de gestion existants doivent être adaptés aux exigences des détenteurs du savoir faire et de la culture du savoir ", écrit Felix Pfeil de l'Université de Wurzbourg dans sa publication " Megatrends et la dritte Revolution der Automobilindustrie " parue en 2018.
Tendances dans l'industrie automobile : cinq domaines
The profile of automotive groups is that they are progressively becoming global mobility providers rather than pure manufacturers. This is also the opinion of the analysts at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). They have looked at the automotive industry and have extrapolated five areas that could be considered as drivers of the automotive sector:
- Le véhicule : la voiture du futur sera " eascy ". Ce qui signifie : electrified, autonomous, shared, connected, yearly updated. In other words, the future car will be better at controlling air pollution because it is electric - provided that the electricity it produces does not contain fossil fuels. À l'avenir, on n'achètera pas les voitures elles-mêmes, mais on paiera pour leur utilisation (mobility-as-a-service). Somme toute, les véhicules pourraient devenir plus abordables pour leurs utilisateurs.
- The users: the technical generation will continue to push ahead with the development of mobility. Mais il se trouvera aussi à l'avenir divers " types d'utilisateurs " parallèles. While a young, technologically advanced and urban population focuses on "shared services", autonomous taxis or buses, as well as on public (electric) transport, other populations - such as families or elderly people in predominantly rural areas - will always place the emphasis on their personal vehicles. However, their use will be more varied.
- Mobility: according to PwC's analysis, 40 percent of the kilometres travelled in Europe in 2030 will be with autonomous vehicles. Les kilomètres-passagers vont augmenter de 23 pour cent. The trend towards "using rather than owning" (see point 1) is increasing as a result of the growth in digital mobility services, such as mobile car hire agencies, car-sharing platforms or digital taxi companies offering their services via apps.
- The automotive market: the increase in "shared mobility services" will mean that the number of registered vehicles will tend to fall, while their rate of use will rise. PwC analysts estimate that by 2030, the number of vehicles in Europe will fall from 280 to 200 million units. And that 55 percent of new registrations in 2030 will involve electric vehicles.
- Valeur ajoutée automobile: automobile manufacturers and their component suppliers are forced to position themselves with client-oriented innovations. Une modification de stratégie, allant du " technology driven " pour passer au " service driven " et atteindre l'" innovation driven ", sera inéluctable. Marquant : parmi les 10 entreprises les plus innovantes (état 2017), une seule concerne l'automobile, à savoir Tesla Motors ...
Les propulsions alternatives arrivent
Considéré sur le plan technique, le moteur thermique à essence pourrait être voué à la disparition. However, in view of current vehicle sales figures, this does not appear to be imminent. Toutefois, selon l'organisation faîtière du commerce automobile suisse, autosuisse, 21 591 véhicules à propulsion alternative ont été mis en circulation en 2018. Ce qui représente une hausse de 23 pour cent par rapport à 2017. La part de marché des véhicules électriques, hybrides, au GNC et à hydrogène s'élevée à 7,2 pour cent. Près de la moitié des immatriculations alternatives a rapport aux voitures électriques et hybrides rechargeables, leur proportion s'est élevée à 3,2 pour cent. Automobile manufacturers and markets have every interest in expanding their product range. Currently, the dominant generation of consumers believes that owning a car contributes significantly to the quality of life. However, this paradigm is being challenged - and with it, a whole sector of the industry that represents "the driving force" par excellence for economies of scale.
