A more global view of things

US tariffs of 50 billion dollars here or 100 billion dollars there - not to mention EU tariffs of up to 2.8 billion euros - are not even rounding differences in globally seen world trade, according to experts. Economists at the consulting firm Capital Eco-nomics also point to the "small" sums, at least for the time being:

Even if all the protectionist measures threatened by the parties involved so far were to be taken, it would depress global GDP by significantly less than half a percent, say the chief economists at Capital Eco nomics in London.

"The U.S. does not intend to simply negotiate nicely."

But there are also other sides that assume an additional burden of ten percent on all US imports. Should world market-dominating countries react with high "retaliatory tariffs" in the future, a global recession could loom. But this scenario is less likely, says Martin Naville, CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce, in Zurich.

- How devastating could these tariffs from the US and the EU have been for the economic performance of Swiss companies?

Mr. Naville, noting China's government protective tariffs, aren't the U.S.'s threatened regulatory measures against global trade long overdue?
It is not surprising that the USA no longer accepts this imbalance of protective tariffs. A corresponding reduction of individual tariffs can hardly be negotiated by the US at the World Trade Organization WTO. That is why the Trump administration is now taking action against its competitors with short-term threats and selective measures. Long-term

The goal is probably to reduce all tariffs on all economic powers - not to erect additional trade barriers.

How are the duties distributed in principle?
In the globally weighted trade package, the US is demanding tariffs against 3.5 percent, the EU 5.2 percent and China 9.9 percent. In other words, China is demanding three times more than the states. Indeed, today's situation is not balanced.

"I guess the goal is to lower all tariffs."

Where might Donald Trump ultimately be headed with his vote - or is it pure rhetoric - for completely free trade?
I would say the U.S. does not intend simply to negotiate nicely. There are two things at stake: If China, for example, engages in state-sponsored dumping in the steel industry, and a bulk of jobs are lost elsewhere, the US first demands a level playing field.

Secondly, it must not be the case that state subsidies are frowned upon in the US and the EU, while China is hardly reprimanded by the WTO. The world needs bilateral symmetrical treaties.

Turbulent times for Swiss exporters?
Between globalization and protectionism: What threats and opportunities await internationally active Swiss companies? This question was answered by economics professors Simon J. Evenett (University of St. Gallen) and Patrick Ziltener (University of Zurich) in their latest study for Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE). Daniel Küng, CEO of Switzerland Global Enterprise, comments: "The study by the two experts shows that exporters should take the big headlines with a grain of salt. In individual cases, new agreements in the Asia-Pacific region or in Latin America could perhaps The only ones who could prevail in the direction of "zero trade" (editor's note: worldwide protective tariff nihiliation) are currently the USA.

The USA is Switzerland's second most important trading partner. Do you still see room for manoeuvre for certain Swiss sectors if tariffs are too rigorous?
At the moment, direct tariffs make no difference. At best, the US steel and aluminium prices are currently having an impact on value chains in multinational industries in Switzerland. In economic terms, this is far from being an "economic war", but it is annoying for those affected.

However, if the measures and countermeasures were to continue to escalate, this would pose a major threat to the export-oriented Swiss economy.

Are there possibly even positive effects of this trade dispute?
If - amidst all the media noise - the negotiations result in a new trade structure with adjusted tariffs and better exchanged rules, the market participants could win.

In conclusion, what remedies could risk managers take against overly unilateral safeguard duties?
Managers will use today's events to develop new scenarios. These will certainly include value creation in the largest markets in order to minimize imports and the associated tariffs. have more influence than the tariff policies of the USA or China. At the same time, globalization is constantly creating new opportunities. Negotiations are underway for free trade agreements or trade facilitation measures are coming into force that could benefit Swiss companies. We advise exporters to analyse what is changing for them in detail on the ground - and to continue to drive their international business forward with courage.