"Security Switzerland" 2017 more complex than ever

Some crisis points have been reinforced since last year's "Security Switzerland" report by further elements critical of Europe: the UK's decision to leave the EU, the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA , or even the constitutional change in Turkey. This would "further erode" problems, replacing them with fundamental uncertainties and imponderables.

Europe's order is under extraordinary pressure, which is not without consequences for Switzerland's strategic environment. Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin stressed at the Federal Security Conference in April 2017 that an armed attack on Switzerland was unlikely.

Political polarization  

"What is unmistakable," reads the corresponding comuniqué, "however, is not only polarization under the influence of cross-border influence and information operations, as well as increased militarization on the European continent." Both the "Islamic State" and "al-Qaeda" are infiltrating European countries.

In Switzerland, too, the terrorist threat from ideologically motivated groups and splinter groups remains heightened.

Turkey is in the midst of a serious internal and external crisis. The turmoil in Syria and Iraq is perceived to endanger core interests of national security. The attempted coup in the summer of 2016 not only fundamentally challenged the stability of Turkish institutions: the president's reaction and his efficient instrumentalization of a broad-based Turkish nationalism exposed Turkey's relations with Europe to new tensions.

The deterioration in relations with the EU, which has continued for several years, points to possible permanent damage to the relationship. Turkey is essential for Europe in stemming the flow of refugees and the terrorist threat.

Migration pressure

Since April 2016, i.e. after the closure of the so-called Balkan route and the conclusion of the agreement between the EU and Turkey, the peak of the previous year has been broken in the migration movement to Europe, but the pressure remains high. The potential for a crisis-like development remains, and with it the possibility that the security aspects of migration will become more acute. While the extreme right-wing scene in Switzerland has not yet emerged with violence against asylum seekers or infrastructure and service providers in the asylum sector, as elsewhere in Europe, the extreme left-wing scene has made migration one of its main themes and also acts violently in this regard.

"It is this issue that is most likely to escalate the situation in the area of violent extremism, which has tended to calm down - the potential for violence in this regard continues to exist," underlines the latest NDB report.

Espionage remains an issue

Espionage remains a state instrument for obtaining information. Spying also takes place in Switzerland - against Switzerland as well as against international organisations and non-governmental organisations based here. Increasingly, sabotage activities in cyberspace are attracting global attention. States that have their own offensive cyber capacities are developing them intensively.

After the Snowden disclosures provided deep insights into the cyber capabilities of the USA and its allies within the framework of the 5-Eyes states (USA, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), activities from the Russian area in particular are currently increasing in aggressiveness in cyberspace. States without offensive means of their own are increasingly relying on the offers of hacker groups. Interstate conflicts are also increasingly being fought out in virtual space.

The annual situation report of the Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) is intended to help provide security policy orientation. Here you will find the complete report.