Study: Mobile data traffic breaks all records

Mobile data traffic is driven by explosive growth. This is being shaped by the transition from 4G to 5G. Cisco anticipates highly scaled deployments of 5G infrastructure starting in 2020. Mobile network operators need the high speeds, low latency, and dynamic provisioning capabilities of 5G networks to meet new mobile service trends and higher customer demands.

Cisco predicts that by 2021, 1.5 percent of all mobile data traffic will already be carried over 5G connections. In doing so, they will generate 4.7 times more traffic than average 4G connections and 10.7 times more than 3G. The Cisco study highlights:

Data traffic will increase sevenfold worldwide in the next five years, and sixfold in Western Europe.

"Traffic" milestones through 2021:

• 20 percent of all IP traffic is mobile - up from 8 percent in 2016.
• There will be 1.5 mobile devices per capita of the world's population, nearly 12 billion in total, including M2M modules - up from 8 billion / 1.1 per capita in 2016.
• The average speed of mobile networks will increase threefold from 6.8 to 20.4 Mb/s.
• M2M connections will represent 29 percent (3.3 billion) of all mobile networking - up from 5 percent in 2016.
• 4G accounts for 58 percent of all mobile connections (2016: 26 percent) and 79 percent of all mobile traffic.
• More than half of mobile devices will be smartphones (including "phablets", larger mobile devices) (6.2 billion, 2016: 3.6 billion).

Developments in Western Europe

In Western Europe, mobile data traffic will increase sixfold between 2016 and 2021. This means that mobile data volume will grow twice as fast as that of fixed wireline networks. Smartphones will be responsible for three quarters (75 percent) of mobile traffic in this region by the end of 2021.

Currently, about 371.1 million Western Europeans (89 percent) own a mobile device. The small increase to 380.7 million in five years clearly shows saturation. Today, each user generates 1.88 megabytes per month; in 2021, it will be 9.8 megabytes per month.

Various video applications

In Western Europe, an above-average increase is expected for videos: Their share of mobile data volume will increase from 61 percent in 2016 to 80 percent in 2021. M2M data traffic will increase 12-fold in Western Europe and will then account for one-tenth (11 percent) of mobile traffic. In five years, there will be around 160 million wearables in Western Europe, of which 10.5 million will be connected to a mobile phone.

Rising video penetration:

(live videos, virtual and augmented reality, wearables)

• Mobile video will increase 8.7-fold between 2016 and 2021 - with the highest rate of increase of any mobile app - and will represent 78 percent of all mobile traffic.
• Mobile live video is growing 39-fold and will represent 5 percent of all mobile video traffic by 2021.

Trend towards Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR)

• The number of VR headsets is increasing fivefold from 18 million in 2016 to nearly 100 million in 2021.
• In the same period, global VR traffic increases 11-fold.
• AR traffic will grow sevenfold between 2016 and 2021.

Wearables drive M2M growth

• From 2016 to 2021, the number of wearables worldwide will increase from 325 to 929 million - almost three times.
• By then, 69 million wearables will have integrated cellular connectivity, up from 11 million in 2016.

Traffic offload to Wi-Fi networks

• Mobile data traffic offload on Wi-Fi networks will increase from 60 to 63 percent from 2016 to 2021.
• The number of public Wi-Fi hotspots (including homespots) worldwide increases sixfold from 94.0 to 541.6 million over the same period.

For more information on the "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)" (by country and region), see this Link